Economists 'issue warning over Tory plans'

[Hookit]

More than 50 leading economists have reportedly issued a warning that plans for cuts this year risk pushing the economy back into recession.

Economists 'issue warning over Tory plans'



The Daily Telegraph said 58 economists from around the world had signed a letter warning the recovery remained "fragile" and "rash action" could lead to spiralling job losses.



The paper, which claimed it had obtained a leaked copy of the letter, said the signatories included such respected academic economists as Lord Layard, Lord Skidelsky, Lord Peston and Sir David Hendry.
The disclosure comes on the eve of the first televised leaders' debate and after the first week of the General Election campaign was dominated by declarations of support for the Tory plan by business leaders.
In their letter, the economists said that while the Tories described their proposed £6 billion cut as "efficiency savings", in economic terms it was "just a cut by another name".
They said: "It will lead directly to job losses and indirectly to further falls in spending through the standard multiplier process. At a time when recovery is delicate it could even affect confidence to the degree that we are tipped back into recession - with much larger job consequences."

[Expounder]

;104447]More than 50 leading economists have reportedly issued a warning that plans for cuts this year risk pushing the economy back into recession.

Economists 'issue warning over Tory plans'

.

.
The disclosure comes on the eve of the first televised leaders' debate and after the first week of the General Election campaign was dominated by declarations of support for the Tory plan by business leaders.
In their letter, the economists said that while the Tories described their proposed £6 billion cut as "efficiency savings", in economic terms it was "just a cut by another name".
They said: "It will lead directly to job losses and indirectly to further falls in spending through the standard multiplier process. At a time when recovery is delicate it could even affect confidence to the degree that we are tipped back into recession - with much larger job consequences."

I just wonder would this have any effect on "the moronic minority". The don't knows?


Read on:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-sto...5875-22186439/

[Midas]

This is hardly a surprise given the leftward political leaning of most academic economists, especially those out of the LSE, and in particular the four named ones who either have been or still are advisers to the Labour Party. You wouldn't really expect them to say much else given their positions would you?

[Expounder]

This is hardly a surprise given the leftward political leaning of most academic economists, especially those out of the LSE, and in particular the four named ones who either have been or still are advisers to the Labour Party. You wouldn't really expect them to say much else given their positions would you?

The reports said the the economists the quotes were "from around the world" Internationally, king Canute Cameron is out on his own on this issue.

[Midas]

The reports said the the economists the quotes were "from around the world" Internationally, king Canute Cameron is out on his own on this issue.

I know what it said, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. My reference was to the four named economists and the LSE generally. But I'm sure you know as well as I do that there's a preponderance of left wing economists in academia throughout the world; those with practical, real word, experience are generally found in industry, commerce, trade associations etc.

[Expounder]

I know what it said, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. My reference was to the four named economists and the LSE generally. But I'm sure you know as well as I do that there's a preponderance of left wing economists in academia throughout the world; those with practical, real word, experience are generally found in industry, commerce, trade associations etc.

Which means by definition they must all be wrong, or have conspired to concoct a report which conflicts with Cameron and the Tories slash and burn policies.................. don't think so.

[Midas]

Which means by definition they must all be wrong, or have conspired to concoct a report which conflicts with Cameron and the Tories slash and burn policies.................. don't think so.

Your definition perhaps, but the performance of international commerce has confounded academic economists so many times in the past that I'd have thought even they'd have seen a bit of a pattern!

[JacquesMagique]

I know what it said, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. My reference was to the four named economists and the LSE generally. But I'm sure you know as well as I do that there's a preponderance of left wing economists in academia throughout the world; those with practical, real word, experience are generally found in industry, commerce, trade associations etc.

Those with a vested interest in the success of their firm over others you mean?

[JacquesMagique]

IMF warns against early spending cuts:

Western economies too weak for spending cuts, IMF warns | Business | guardian.co.uk

[Major Sinic]

IMF warns against early spending cuts:

Western economies too weak for spending cuts, IMF warns | Business | guardian.co.uk

Except for those countries suffering a large increase in risk premiums. We are on the brink of doing so.

[JacquesMagique]

Except for those countries suffering a large increase in risk premiums. We are on the brink of doing so.

I imagine that refers to Greece, Spain and Ireland, rather than the UK.

[LA]

If you cannot find 50 economists to agree with you, you shouldn't play the game.
I could probably find 50 economists who believe in no state intervention and an actual laissez-faire economy.

[JacquesMagique]

If you cannot find 50 economists to agree with you, you shouldn't play the game.
I could probably find 50 economists who believe in no state intervention and an actual laissez-faire economy.

Presumably you don't mean NO state intervention. Murray Rothbard is the only name which springs to mind.

[uncon]

The IFA has criticised the policies of all three parties in their report. The difference is that the Liberal Democrats and the conservatives have not been provided with the relevant information, targets contractual obligations etc to be able to be anything but vague. Why have labour been hiding the reports that were freely available to them when they came to power? I suspect a few hidden nasties in there

[LA]

The Economist supports the Conservative Party

How many papers is that now :P

[JacquesMagique]

How many papers is that now :P

What's your point? The conservatives have a better propaganda machine. You must be so proud.

[LA]

What's your point? The conservatives have a better propaganda machine. You must be so proud.

Absolute rubbish. Labour can spin something so much they can spin spin....
The Economist realises that the Tories will bring change and are what they want.

[Blazzin]

This is hardly a surprise given the leftward political leaning of most academic economists, especially those out of the LSE, and in particular the four named ones who either have been or still are advisers to the Labour Party. You wouldn't really expect them to say much else given their positions would you?

Absolute rubbish. This may have been the case in the 1970s but has not been for a very long time. Although I am not inclined to answer a post based in ignorance and bias with actual evidence (something the above post clearly lacks) but still the link below should be enough to expose the downright absurdity of the above remark.

LSE Hayek Society

[Expounder]

Has anyone experienced almost daily conservative mailed election material posted from Millbank or from the local Tory HQ? On one day my wife an myself received one each personally addressed to us from Millbank and one from the local party. on the other days something blue has been slipped through the letter box.

This afternoon [Saturday] our peace and quite was disturbed by megaphone which I thought was and ice cream vendor, the door bell rang and a very polite young man with blue rosette who wanted to know if I was going to vote conservative I told him not chance in hell. We just stood there staring at each other for a few moments. I asked what else he wanted he just stood their staring at me. I said I hope that their is a hung parliament and Cameron would still be sounding off in opposition. Still the stare but then the penny dropped " you'll be voting Labour then" I said hole in one we politely said our goodbyes and closed the door.

Five minutes later the bell rang again this time a senior member of the royal blues stood there obviously thinking that lad I had just spoken to hadn't tried hard enough. This time looked across the street and it was crawling with Tory canvassers I got rid of my caller who reluctantly left after repeating what I had already said to the young lad

I live in Labour candidate Bob Blizzard's constituency in Suffolk, and the amount of money the Tories are spending even in long odds marginals is obscene. It's like being blitzed with a barrage of junk mail courtesy of money bags Ashcroft. I hope if there is a hung parliament and a Lib/Lab coalition that along with the passing of legislation on P.R., included in it is a cap on money spent on political advertising propaganda on all parties.

Has anyone else experienced this deluge of Tory party leaflets

[Blazzin]

I am amazed anyone is actually buying this nonsense about 'efficiency savings'. Not only is this the oldest trick in the book and a rather discredited 'head in the clouds' way of thinking it just seems quite amazing coming from the tories.

Tory councils are well known money wasters. This is often highlighted by the Audit Commission |(an independent organisation that audits public services). David Cameron's phrase 'value for money' is exactly how the audit commission audit public services and they measure value for money based on economy, effectiveness and efficiency using an 'evidence based' methodology. Now despite what Cameron says it is common knowledge the tories want to abolish the Audit commission precisely because they are so critical of Tory councils when it comes to wasting money. This whole thing stinks - The tories record on value for money is appalling and they seek to mask this by abolishing independent audits - this does not sound like a party committed to practising what Cameron is currently preaching.

[Midas]

Absolute rubbish. This may have been the case in the 1970s but has not been for a very long time. Although I am not inclined to answer a post based in ignorance and bias with actual evidence (something the above post clearly lacks) but still the link below should be enough to expose the downright absurdity of the above remark.

Hmm, an awfully familiar writing style you've got; "Blazzin"!

Perhaps if you read what I actually wrote instead of what you think I wrote, you'd see that it's far from rubbish. I was talking about the four named economists, and if you care to check out their backgrounds you'll see that either 3 out of the 4, or all 4, came from the LSE and were advisers to the Labour party (can't recall which the combination was and I can't be bothered to check again); if that's not left wing I don't know what is - where's the 'absolute rubbish' in that? I also mentioned the fact that most, not all, academic economists were toward the left, also true if you care to read the biographies of many of them.

I made no statement about the LSE's current political bias, however if you care to check through their own website you'll see several comments like "Once known for its left wing leanings, the LSE seems now to have changed its views slightly..." - i.e., it's still left wing but not as much so, which I quite accept. However it's also been in the news several times recently for banning right wing speakers, including people such as John McCain and Douglas Murray, on spurious 'security' grounds, yet has been quite happy to invite far more radical left wing speakers such as the Islamic fundamentalist Hamza Andreas Tzortzis with no such security concerns; that still smacks of a distinct left wing bias regardless of whether you like to think it is or not!

LSE Hayek Society

Hayek eh; yes there have been some excellent right wing economists, and it's perhaps unsurprising the LSE Hayek Society has some current members, I'd have been exceedingly surprised if that hadn't been the case...... your point being?

However it's hardly the subject of this thread is it, so if we could get back to that please......

[JacquesMagique]

I also mentioned the fact that most, not all, academic economists were toward the left, also true if you care to read the biographies of many of them.

Erm, no it's not. The dominant overriding ideas in economics lean towards very free markets, probably freer than you even advocate. I'm not too sure what's left wing about that. You claim to have the dominant hand when it comes to talking about the business world, so you should respect 'blazzin' who we know has a lot of experience in academia.

[Blazzin]

Hmm, an awfully familiar writing style you've got; "Blazzin"!

Well, you know we can't all be original writers (nod nod wink wink)!

Perhaps if you read what I actually wrote instead of what you think I wrote, you'd see that it's far from rubbish. I was talking about the four named economists, and if you care to check out their backgrounds you'll see that either 3 out of the 4, or all 4, came from the LSE and were advisers to the Labour party (can't recall which the combination was and I can't be bothered to check again); if that's not left wing I don't know what is - where's the 'absolute rubbish' in that?

Now this misses the point for two reasons. 1. Labour over the last decade have sought advice predominately from liberal/ right wing economists as evidenced in their economic policy (not least their unwillingness to regulate the banks - hardly lefty is it?) and 2. Simply because a government you deem to be left (even if in this case they aren't - see point 1) does not automatically mean those they consult are left wing

I also mentioned the fact that most, not all, academic economists were toward the left, also true if you care to read the biographies of many of them.
.

This was the bit that was absolute rubbish (perhaps I could have been clearer on this?). As I said maybe true in the 1960s/70s but not really today. The majority of academic economists are actually so naive they claim to have no bias at all!! However if you check the bibliographies of many leading academics from LSE there is certainly a bias towards the neo-liberal economic model, although as this model is now proving to be somewhat divorced from reality, there is an increasing (minority) movement re-discovering the left, but this very very recent (as in only the last 2 years or so)

[Blazzin]

so you should respect 'blazzin' who we know has a lot of experience in academia.

shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh - lol

[Streetwalker]

Has anyone experienced almost daily conservative mailed election material posted from Millbank or from the local Tory HQ? On one day my wife an myself received one each personally addressed to us from Millbank and one from the local party. on the other days something blue has been slipped through the letter box.

This afternoon [Saturday] our peace and quite was disturbed by megaphone which I thought was and ice cream vendor, the door bell rang and a very polite young man with blue rosette who wanted to know if I was going to vote conservative I told him not chance in hell. We just stood there staring at each other for a few moments. I asked what else he wanted he just stood their staring at me. I said I hope that their is a hung parliament and Cameron would still be sounding off in opposition. Still the stare but then the penny dropped " you'll be voting Labour then" I said hole in one we politely said our goodbyes and closed the door.

Five minutes later the bell rang again this time a senior member of the royal blues stood there obviously thinking that lad I had just spoken to hadn't tried hard enough. This time looked across the street and it was crawling with Tory canvassers I got rid of my caller who reluctantly left after repeating what I had already said to the young lad

I live in Labour candidate Bob Blizzard's constituency in Suffolk, and the amount of money the Tories are spending even in long odds marginals is obscene. It's like being blitzed with a barrage of junk mail courtesy of money bags Ashcroft. I hope if there is a hung parliament and a Lib/Lab coalition that along with the passing of legislation on P.R., included in it is a cap on money spent on political advertising propaganda on all parties.

Has anyone else experienced this deluge of Tory party leaflets

Im affriad so, along with everyone elses.Its to be expected though it does seem a little over the top this time round from the Cons.
Your doorstep encounter was amussing.I generally just let the dogs out

[Expounder]

Im affriad so, along with everyone elses.Its to be expected though it does seem a little over the top this time round from the Cons.
Your doorstep encounter was amussing.I generally just let the dogs out

Apart from Tory slash and burn policies that will cause a massive increase in unemployment and protect their rich cohorts there is a more sinister less talked about policy that they intend to introduce.

Their proposal of a 10% reduction in the number of Westminster MPs has been carefully calculated as a plan to ensure that no other party would have a chance of gaining power other than in a landslide victory. This will be the next major fight in defence of democracy to ensure that a politically balanced representation of parliament is maintained if the Tories are elected today.

[Midas]

Apart from Tory slash and burn policies that will cause a massive increase in unemployment and protect their rich cohorts there is a more sinister less talked about policy that they intend to introduce.

You just cannot go living on borrowed money! From a sheer practical point of view, and completely removing politics from the equation, which ever party emerges as a winner after today has to start cutting back on both borrowing and expenditure to balance the books; they've been handed a poisoned chalice by Labour. No-one can honestly say that the public services aren't over-staffed and wastefully managed, and with care some significant savings can be made without affecting the core services. As far as the wealthy are concerned, and again removing politics from the equation, it's pretty obvious that these are the people who're prepared to take significant financial risks with their investments in this country, in return for significant rewards of course, and in so doing provide hundreds of thousands of new jobs and very substantial contributions to the exchequer. Just think about it, which is better for the country as a whole - taxing the wealthy to such an extent that they no longer consider it worthwhile investing in the UK, or allowing them to (as you'd put it) 'get away' with much lower personal taxation in return for the disproportionately greater returns to the country as a whole? Surely you can see the common sense and logic in that?

Their proposal of a 10% reduction in the number of Westminster MPs has been carefully calculated as a plan to ensure that no other party would have a chance of gaining power other than in a landslide victory. This will be the next major fight in defence of democracy to ensure that a politically balanced representation of parliament is maintained if the Tories are elected today.

As I understand it Exp, all the major political parties are now proposing a reduction in the number of MPs, even Labour.

[uncon]

This will be the next major fight in defence of democracy to ensure that a politically balanced representation of parliament is maintained if the Tories are elected today.

Can you tell me how that will work if Labour gains the least amount of votes and yet their unelected PM retains his premiership, and his party remains in power? tell me how democratic that is. Looks immoral and an affront to democracy to me.

[DTE]

tory cuts only for the workers! theire rich friends will be fine of course, they supposedly are beter than the rest of us! cuts in recession are stupid - look at wall strt crash and every recession in hitory. tories couldnt find arses with hands.

[ryoden]

tory cuts only for the workers! theire rich friends will be fine of course, they supposedly are beter than the rest of us! cuts in recession are stupid - look at wall strt crash and every recession in hitory. tories couldnt find arses with hands.

Spellchecker - Online Spell Check Form

[Don]

Spellchecker - Online Spell Check Form

lol! All of that could be done with the built in spellchecker.

[pauli007001]

Spellchecker - Online Spell Check Form

Heres an Idea, why not criticise CONTENT and not delivery?

Would it be an inability to formulate an argument causing you to resort to commenting on spelling mistakes?

[ryoden]

Heres an Idea, why not criticise CONTENT and not delivery?

Would it be an inability to formulate an argument causing you to resort to commenting on spelling mistakes?

Not at all I am quite capable of formulating a cogent arguement but if you had seen the post he made with regard to sucking cock earlier perhaps you would realise why I didn't bother with an arguement. Normally I am quite happy to treat others as adults but only if they act like adults. Also I didn't realise we had a forum spellcheck facility so I learned something new today

[pauli007001]

Not at all I am quite capable of formulating a cogent arguement but if you had seen the post he made with regard to sucking cock earlier perhaps you would realise why I didn't bother with an arguement. Normally I am quite happy to treat others as adults but only if they act like adults. Also I didn't realise we had a forum spellcheck facility so I learned something new today

The post you mention was in TOP? I responded to it in kind, however I too may use the forums spellcheck, nah actually I probably wont....

[Expounder]

Well, you know we can't all be original writers (nod nod wink wink)!


Now this misses the point for two reasons. 1. Labour over the last decade have sought advice predominately from liberal/ right wing economists as evidenced in their economic policy (not least their unwillingness to regulate the banks - hardly lefty is it?) and 2. Simply because a government you deem to be left (even if in this case they aren't - see point 1) does not automatically mean those they consult are left wing

This was the bit that was absolute rubbish (perhaps I could have been clearer on this?). As I said maybe true in the 1960s/70s but not really today. The majority of academic economists are actually so naive they claim to have no bias at all!! However if you check the bibliographies of many leading academics from LSE there is certainly a bias towards the neo-liberal economic model, although as this model is now proving to be somewhat divorced from reality, there is an increasing (minority) movement re-discovering the left, but this very very recent (as in only the last 2 years or so)

So money bags Ashcroft's millions didn't desimate Labour, after 13 years our vote held up in our tribal fields and wiped the smirk off of Tory faces. The country didn't buy Big Society bull**** from Cameron and now his head's on the block with the rabid Tory rank and file looking for blood. Labour stand proud and firm in the face of one of the greatest Tory financial and media driven onslaughts ever experienced in it's history.

If Clegg does a deal with the Tories in his thirst for illusory meaningless power and becomes dish rag to be used by the slash and cut Tories he will become contaminated by the toxic association.I hope he refuses a full coalition with the Tories or Labour and let the Tories rule as a minority government not opposing the Queens speech and let them enforce their policies. They have highest proportion of votes for any single party, so let wingeing Cameron in, loose the reins give them a eighteen months or two years to prove exactly what they're about, then Labour the Lib Dems should go for the Tory jugular.Let then hang themselves with their own policies then face the public again.

Labour has to play this intelligently and not try to force the issue of a coalition with Clegg if his negotiations with Cameron breaks down. It would be a dogs dinner, a mish mash of policies including some Lib Dem hair brained policies rejected by the electorate which would weaken and erode Labour policies to resolve the recession and could end in Labour unable to take the full action it wanted to bring us out of recession and an early election keeping Labour out of power for years because of a useless Lib/Lab tie up.

Let the Tories loose as as minority party and let them do their worst and prove to the British public once and for all what they s stand for. Let loose the reins give them time to expose their utter calousness and unfairness when it comes to looking after the interests of the British people.

For Labour to try to salve anything out of this stand off would be a mistake, Let labour rest, and let the truth about the Bullingdon boys sink in.

[uncon]

At any point most parties can find an economist to support them. It's like expert witnesses in a murder case...everyone is banking on just enough doubt and it could convict an innocent man or free a guilty one.

how negative is that?

[LeeRain]

tory cuts only for the workers! theire rich friends will be fine of course, they supposedly are beter than the rest of us! cuts in recession are stupid - look at wall strt crash and every recession in hitory. tories couldnt find arses with hands.

[Major Sinic]

tory cuts only for the workers! theire rich friends will be fine of course, they supposedly are beter than the rest of us! cuts in recession are stupid - look at wall strt crash and every recession in hitory. tories couldnt find arses with hands.

Thank you for this illuminating comment. I am sure we will all benefit from your economic and political insight.

First of all our government is a Liberal Conservative Coalition, not a Tory government. Indeed a number of died in the wool Tories would suggest the Liberal element is too influential.

The inescapable fact is that for every four pounds the government spends we have to borrow one of them. This level of borrowing is unsustainable. We already spend more on interest than we do on education. Should we continue to borrow at the rate of the previous Labour administration, assuming that such facilities remain available, Britain's credit rating will be compromised and interest payments will increase further. We need to have a government that has the commitment and skills to drag us out of this downward debt spiral.

Cutting expenditure is unavoidable when you have none left to spend, and had Labour been returned they would have had no real alternative but to do the same.To suggest that there is a viable alternative is economically naive in the extreme.

The comments about the Tories looking after the rich while only the working class suffer the cuts is such a gross distortion that it is barely worthy of comment. All sectors of society from both the private and public sectors will suffer from the unpopular but essential economic measures being taken by this government.

[Major Sinic]

tory cuts only for the workers! theire rich friends will be fine of course, they supposedly are beter than the rest of us! cuts in recession are stupid - look at wall strt crash and every recession in hitory. tories couldnt find arses with hands.

I thought I had seen this drivel before, and sure enough further back on this thread is a 'wind-up post' using identical words from one of the recently departed angry young men. How droll!

[Norch]

I am not suprised at this, the Conservatives will hoard the money the economy needs in coffers when it is needed most. Although they bleat on about the jobs their tax cuts will create, far more will be lost due to the cuts they make. Although the rate we are borrowing at is unsustainable, most of our debt is internal (meaning its owed to British companies and people). The difference between the Greek debt crisis and the case in Britain is that a lot of Greek debt was owed to other nations and companies outside of Greece.

Labour was doing most things correctly, (no party is perfect), they continued spending, putting money into the economy and supporting it, and we were leaving the recession behind us with some weak growth. Today, we now face this support removed, in favour of tax cuts for the rich, so apparently they create these jobs that the Tories are on about (the ones that will be overshadowed by the double dip recession we face). However, they should have started dealing with the crisis by dealing with corruption, although this would not clear the problem of British debt overnight, it would certainly started to help without putting the economy and jobs at risk.

Another thing, although Gordon Brown deregulated the financial services industry, probably too much, there is still one thing that could have prevented the recession (or at least lessened its effect), its this thing called common sense. If the capitalist bankers had used this common sense, we would be fine, the laugh of it is, these capitalists hold the same ideas and opinions as the Conservatives, however much David Cameron goes on about responsibility.

The Conservatives should realise the economy is not a toy.

[soloman]

I am not suprised at this, the Conservatives will hoard the money the economy needs in coffers when it is needed most. Although they bleat on about the jobs their tax cuts will create, far more will be lost due to the cuts they make. Although the rate we are borrowing at is unsustainable, most of our debt is internal (meaning its owed to British companies and people). The difference between the Greek debt crisis and the case in Britain is that a lot of Greek debt was owed to other nations and companies outside of Greece.

Labour was doing most things correctly, (no party is perfect), they continued spending, putting money into the economy and supporting it, and we were leaving the recession behind us with some weak growth. Today, we now face this support removed, in favour of tax cuts for the rich, so apparently they create these jobs that the Tories are on about (the ones that will be overshadowed by the double dip recession we face). However, they should have started dealing with the crisis by dealing with corruption, although this would not clear the problem of British debt overnight, it would certainly started to help without putting the economy and jobs at risk.

Another thing, although Gordon Brown deregulated the financial services industry, probably too much, there is still one thing that could have prevented the recession (or at least lessened its effect), its this thing called common sense. If the capitalist bankers had used this common sense, we would be fine, the laugh of it is, these capitalists hold the same ideas and opinions as the Conservatives, however much David Cameron goes on about responsibility.

The Conservatives should realise the economy is not a toy.

In terms of irresponsibility you need look no further than the last Labour government; all of the present indebtedness was due entirely to the lax to non-existent controls applied by Gordon Brown and his henchmen.