Could the coalition destroy Labour at the next General Election?

[newspresenter]

The coalition party's got around 17.5 million votes combined, if the coalition is successful, and their voters like it, they could turn the coalition into one party, and that would mean those 17.5 million voters abliterating all opposition at the next general election, effectively, the Labour party would become as big as UKIP/BNP/Greens.

Initially, Labour will get about 600 2nd places, but with very few or no MP's to show for it, party interest would plummet.

What an opportunity Cameroon and Clegg have, thats if they've noticed it.

[joethfc]

That's tosh, if it goes well the public perception of coalition governments will improve but the merging of the two very different parties would simply not happen, are you trying to wind up Labour supporters?

[l4bourparty_supporter]

it depends on how labour responds and recognises the potential of hegemony that this coalition has. the party has to reach out to ordinary people and really listen! no more civil liberty restrictions- NO MORE WARS!!!!- reconnecting our core supporters-embracing Google Page Ranking- look at the doorstep campaigns in Barking and Dagenham that destroyed the BNP- Margaret Hodge increased her vote in Barking! it's about hard work-listening-responding intelligently and no knee jerk-'this caolition will fail!'-we can win-labour isn't dead- all we did was lose the election! that's democracy!

[Expounder]

That's tosh, if it goes well the public perception of coalition governments will improve but the merging of the two very different parties would simply not happen, are you trying to wind up Labour supporters?

I wouldn't take much notice of NPs fantasy musings even if the Lib Dems folded,[which won't happen] their members have to find a political home and the natural home for most urban Lib Dems is the Labour party. Most rural Lib Dems would vote Tory, in both cases with exceptions.

The most dangerous aspect of the outcome of this general election is Camerons proposal for a 55% majority needed in a no confidence vote to throw out a Tory minority government if the Lib Dems left the coalition and joined the opposition benches.

My guess is that something will trigger the Lib Dem/Con pact to break down well before the five year fixed tenure [Vince Cable rumblings already] and will end in some form of Lib/Lab opposition deal along with the other minority parties. That's why Cameron is pushing through this 55% needed for a no confidence vote to call an election. It would mean the Tories continuing to rule as a minority government for the full five years.

The most controversial Tory policy item is their proposal to reduce the number of MPs by 10% and the reforming of constituency boundaries which they think would keep the Tories permanently in office. I doubt if Lib Dem MPs or members would stand for this blatant attempt at gerrymandering.

Cameron accused of proposing anarchy by his own party:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle7127382.ece

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...ered-down.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/elec...-demanded.html

[radical change]

latest poll ratings:


YouGov/Sun August 2nd: CON 42% LAB 38% LDEM 12%
YouGov/Sun August 3rd: CON 41% LAB 36% LDEM 13%
YouGov/Sun August 4th: CON 42% LAB 36% LDEM 13%
YouGov/Sun August 5th: CON 44% LAB 36% LDEM 13%

quite obvious by the lib dems fall people don't like coalitions, also the Tories are right wing, lib dems are centre left

it'll never happen

[Midas]

latest poll ratings:


YouGov/Sun August 2nd: CON 42% LAB 38% LDEM 12%
YouGov/Sun August 3rd: CON 41% LAB 36% LDEM 13%
YouGov/Sun August 4th: CON 42% LAB 36% LDEM 13%
YouGov/Sun August 5th: CON 44% LAB 36% LDEM 13%

quite obvious by the lib dems fall people don't like coalitions, also the Tories are right wing, lib dems are centre left

it'll never happen

It's also quite obvious that the Tory/LibDem coalition's lead over Labour is around 20%......

[coalition]

I wouldn't take much notice of NPs fantasy musings even if the Lib Dems folded,[which won't happen] their members have to find a political home and the natural home for most urban Lib Dems is the Labour party. Most rural Lib Dems would vote Tory, in both cases with exceptions.

The most dangerous aspect of the outcome of this general election is Camerons proposal for a 55% majority needed in a no confidence vote to throw out a Tory minority government if the Lib Dems left the coalition and joined the opposition benches.

My guess is that something will trigger the Lib Dem/Con pact to break down well before the five year fixed tenure [Vince Cable rumblings already] and will end in some form of Lib/Lab opposition deal along with the other minority parties. That's why Cameron is pushing through this 55% needed for a no confidence vote to call an election. It would mean the Tories continuing to rule as a minority government for the full five years.

The most controversial Tory policy item is their proposal to reduce the number of MPs by 10% and the reforming of constituency boundaries which they think would keep the Tories permanently in office. I doubt if Lib Dem MPs or members would stand for this blatant attempt at gerrymandering.

Cameron accused of proposing anarchy by his own party:

Revealed: Cable’s last ditch calls to Brown - Times Online

David Cameron admits 'no confidence' coalition vote plan could be watered down - Telegraph
Coalition Goverment: Revolt looms over five-year Parliament 'stitch-up' that Lib Dems demanded | Mail Online

You sound such a sweet innocent boy, which is probably why your in thrall to a devious, stinking pack of poseurs such as labour. No one will ever vote labour other than those labour cultists on the make and take, I said you would lose and I now say your party will never again be in Government.
Do stop wasting your time and find an honest interest.

[coalition]

You lot had 13 years to find democracy, it was around when you came into power but somehow you mislaid it ....... as a result we have, I believe in perpetuity, a Nazi Coalition. Don't waste your time looking for Votes they mean nothing anymore. I guess 30 to 50 years of fascist control. As you lot don't have the balls to do ought about it and, on past form, its unlikely that your gang will do ought but take the money and expenses, give us an occassional bleat from your 3/4th property - all as before. In the nicest way bug...er off, us, the working class which you mislaid along with your integrity, are better off sorting it out for ourselves. And, take the useless Unions with you. We can't afford passengers.

[Expounder]

The coalition party's got around 17.5 million votes combined, if the coalition is successful, and their voters like it, they could turn the coalition into one party, and that would mean those 17.5 million voters obliterating all opposition at the next general election, effectively, the Labour party would become as big as UKIP/BNP/Greens.

Initially, Labour will get about 600 2nd places, but with very few or no MP's to show for it, party interest would plummet.

What an opportunity Cameroon and Clegg have, that's if they've noticed it.

You Hope, you haven't a clue about the roots of the Labour party and it's strengths, anyway your coalitions 17.5 millions votes will be very much depleted as the Lib Dem voters, many who are already joining Labour, will regard voting Lib Dem as a vote for the junior Tories.

[JacquesMagique]

Cuts havn't even taken hold yet and Labour currently occasionally overtake the torys in the polls. On recent trends they would be projected to be the largest party in parliament, because the current electoral system (championed by the conservatives :S ) allows labour to gain a bigger share of seats with a lower share of the vote. UK Polling Report

The Liberal Democrats have no desire to merge with the Conservatives because, apart from costing them a lot of votes, their policy is much more aligned with the stances which Labour take, there are far too man sticking points (Europe, immigration, family values) between tory and lib dem policy, even if they are prepared to put them aside for this parliament.

[soloman]

Cuts havn't even taken hold yet and Labour currently occasionally overtake the torys in the polls. On recent trends they would be projected to be the largest party in parliament, because the current electoral system (championed by the conservatives :S ) allows labour to gain a bigger share of seats with a lower share of the vote. UK Polling Report

The Liberal Democrats have no desire to merge with the Conservatives because, apart from costing them a lot of votes, their policy is much more aligned with the stances which Labour take, there are far too man sticking points (Europe, immigration, family values) between tory and lib dem policy, even if they are prepared to put them aside for this parliament.

Poll results only to be expected at this early stage in the life of the coalition. Until the decision on proportional voting has taken place and been enshrined in law, the LibDems cannot expect their ratings to improve, nor hold their supporters. It will then need some successive good economic results to convince the electorate that the coailition made the right decisions.

[Opinionated]

Sorry fellas Labour aren't going anywhere just yet! Just wait once the shine comes off and the pain, which won't be shared out equally, and social consequences of the economic measures are truly realised there'll be more opposition to the coalition government than to Brown a year before the election and Labour are going to hoover up those votes.

[Major Sinic]

Sorry fellas Labour aren't going anywhere just yet! Just wait once the shine comes off and the pain, which won't be shared out equally, and social consequences of the economic measures are truly realised there'll be more opposition to the coalition government than to Brown a year before the election and Labour are going to hoover up those votes.

You may be right although I hope you are wrong. If a week is a long time in politics, the remaining four and a half years is an absolute age if, and it is a big if, the Coalition hangs together. By spring of 2015 we will know if the Coalition economic strategy has been successful or not. If it has failed, Labour would probably march right back in, and by then the postman we have as Shadow Chancellor might have actually mastered his economics primer. If it has succeeded, you can look forward to ..... perhaps I should say I and all Conservative supporters....can look forward to a second term. Some have mentioned the main ideological conflicts between the Tories and the LibDems as being Europe, Immigration, family values. I would add to this Alternative Voting (AV). The likelihood of this happening is , in my opinion slim, and this could be the first serious crack in the Coalition unity.

[Nicholas]

Sorry fellas Labour aren't going anywhere just yet! Just wait once the shine comes off and the pain, which won't be shared out equally, and social consequences of the economic measures are truly realised there'll be more opposition to the coalition government than to Brown a year before the election and Labour are going to hoover up those votes.

I think you could see a resurgence of labour, but only under the right leadership. Ed milliband simply doesnt have the bottle to outwit two seasoned political minds like Clegg and Cameron. They would of stood a far better chance under his brothers stewardship. If the smaller parties like the BNP and UKIP can hold it together you might see a significant surge in support for them. Four or five years isnt long enough to forget the devastation Labour caused to this country.

[DaveUK]

I don't care. There's practically no difference between the 3 on most major issues anyway, opposition advasarial politics is dead in this country.

[Jim Franklin]

I don't think Labour are finished just yet, but I can see a split in the party if things continue. Equally i think if handled intelligently, a new party could be formed that would take members of both the Lib Dems and the Tory Centre ground. many MP's/members in the parties actually agree on many things and this common ground could bring them together. If the coalition works, which i feel it will, then it will demonstrate that we do not need to follow the old dogma of British politics anymore..that should be a good thing for the country.

[Midas]

I don't think Labour are finished just yet, but I can see a split in the party if things continue. Equally i think if handled intelligently, a new party could be formed that would take members of both the Lib Dems and the Tory Centre ground. many MP's/members in the parties actually agree on many things and this common ground could bring them together. If the coalition works, which i feel it will, then it will demonstrate that we do not need to follow the old dogma of British politics anymore..that should be a good thing for the country.

I can't help but agree with your last sentence, however I have to question whether any new party will make any real difference other than further splitting the vote and giving the public more room for cynicism about politics as a whole. Surely regardless of where that party might sit on the political spectrum, the very fact that it has partisan views is perpetuating 'the old dogma', or at the very least is acquiescing to the current system which allows the destructive swings in government and policy which is traditional politics, which is what needs changing more than anything.

[Jim Franklin]

Midas, I agree. I do not support the idea of a party created as I think it could happen, I was simply highlighting that it might happen. Personally I think it would be a step backwards.

Glad we agree on the coalition success...

[Expounder]

I think you could see a resurgence of labour, but only under the right leadership. Ed milliband simply doesnt have the bottle to outwit two seasoned political minds like Clegg and Cameron. They would of stood a far better chance under his brothers stewardship. If the smaller parties like the BNP and UKIP can hold it together you might see a significant surge in support for them. Four or five years isnt long enough to forget the devastation Labour caused to this country.

Ed Milliband and the Labour front bench are keeping a low profile. Cuts have been announced but non implemented, it's like the phoney war, there is an apprehensive calm among the public. The effects of the cuts and legislation will not be felt until well into 2011 when they take effect. Osbourn has a plan for the workshy, this will also effect the genuine workless, a million displaced private and public sector workers who will lose the jobs in the near future and who will be treated financially by and large with the same rules applied to the workshy.

Also the petty spiteful nature of some of the cuts forced upon councils which effect the elderly and the infirm and young people's facilities will been seen by voters as the abandonment of the vulnerable and an attempt by Cameron to force his Ideological "Big Society" on the most needy sections of society causing unnecessary pain and distress..

As the cuts unravel and the 20% V.A.T. increase takes effect, [after Cameron promised not to increase V.A.T.] there will be a gradual build up of anger towards the coalition. The cause has to be in place for the anger effect factor to kick in at the moment the country's in limbo waiting for the axe.

For me the jury is out with regards to Ed Miliband. He does come over as a soft target for gobby Cameron, but once the phoney war is over and the gloves are off we shall see how effective he is. If he proves to be unable to shape up there's nearly five years in which to replace him. However I wouldn't write him off just yet.

Getting back to the thread. If the Lib Dem leadership are tempted to go to the country in coalition with the Tories in a general election, there will be in effect no Lib Dem party. At the next GE there would be no need to coalesce with the Tories except for the Lib Dem leaders to maintain their ministerial positions in a sell out [The Power and the glory]. They will be seen as Tory collaborators by their membership, and there will be a few million votes up for grabs. who the majority of these votes go to is unclear, but it certain Labour will receive fair portion.

[Expounder]

I don't think Labour are finished just yet, but I can see a split in the party if things continue. Equally i think if handled intelligently, a new party could be formed that would take members of both the Lib Dems and the Tory Centre ground. many MP's/members in the parties actually agree on many things and this common ground could bring them together. If the coalition works, which i feel it will, then it will demonstrate that we do not need to follow the old dogma of British politics anymore..that should be a good thing for the country.

All been tried before, the gang of four formed the SPD which was was an abject failure, forcing them to link up with the Liberal Party, hence the Lib Dems which has been proven at the last GE in spite of all of the hot air spouted by Glegg no sign of a major break through were stuck in their usual rut.

Ever since the end of WW2 at every general election a liberal renascense was on the cards according to the media, only to come to nothing.

As UKIP the BNP discovered they only attract a disgruntled minority. The last GE was the Lib Dem "big chance" to break the mold but fell back deeper into the rut.

To form a new party of so called center ground MPs you would need major desertions from the Tories and Labour which is not remotely likely.

[Scooby]

I personally don't think that pre-arrangeing a coalition deal before a general election should be legal as it appears to me to be a way of effectively neutering the political system, I'm not sure about Miliband, he's doesn't strike me as the fresh face with no baggage that Labour really needed, for the first twelve months i think he should more or less ignore the coalition, they'll make their own way, his real task for both his party and the country is to re-unite Labour and form an effective opposition