Tony SCHOFIELD'S reasoned and reasonable suggestions for EUkip.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Hi,

here is an interesting commentary from an ex UKIPer who was, until he quit in disgust, an NEC member having been one of the earliest members.

Tony owns a think tank (political) and a publishing house with many well thought out political pamphlets to his credit but is now I understand largely retired but still with a sound political brain.

Tony did much to ensure that UKIP survived at the time I was mailing all members to ensure that its past leader Michael Holmes did not renege on his undertaking and that Jeffrey Titford became leader together with Christopher Booker and Bill Jamieson I mailed a letter of theirs to every single member.

I also wrote a longish (why are you not surprised) 'e'Mail which was picked up by parties interested in the survival of the party who funded me to mail to every member as they believed my analysis to be correct.

Jeffrey was far from a competent leader but he was a safe pair of hands - dull as ditchwater, uncourageous, a little underhand and subsequently corrupted by the job but an infinite improvement on ANY of the other contenders - perhaps I was wrong in ensuring the survival and with hind sight EUkip would not have survived and a new vibrant energetic and honest party or alliance might have already emerged to replace them in working for these United Kingdoms.

UKIP ELECTION STRATEGY

‘Hurt’ not ‘Nudge’

The Tories say they need to win 117 seats to gain an overall majority (after boundary changes).

With perhaps 20 possible gains in all of Wales and Scotland and English LibDem seats, the Tories need to gain 100 English Labour seats.

The political effect of the Cameron speech, dropping his guarantee of a referendum on Lisbon and refusing any referendum on ‘a negotiating mandate’ ,as advocated by David Davis, means there is no meaningful chance of ‘nudging’ the Conservatives into a more eurosceptic direction in the next Parliament. This fact needs to be properly absorbed.

The political conclusion is that there is no advantage for eurosceptics to support the Conservatives in the 2010 election.

It is necessary for UKIP to show muscle and win big votes which will deny the Tories seats. In effect, UKIP needs to make eurosceptic voters the swing votes of elections rather than the million targeted voters in England who are hovering between Labour, LibDem and Conservatives. This is interestingly the strategy being advocated by conservatives in the US vis-à-vis the Republicans.

Generally the three major parties target the million swing voters and this produces a clustering of the parties in the middle ground. They neglect their core vote. They got away with that when there were no realistic alternatives. The rise of realistic minor parties has changed all that. (The Greens play a similar role to UKIP, BNP, etc. on the Left). Once they start losing their core voters as easily as the middle million, they will pay attention.

UKIP, therefore, needs to ‘hurt’ the Tories and while putting up a national spread of candidates, the strategy should be focused on the Tory target seats between, say, seat 60 and seat 140 (of the most winnable seats) in England plus perhaps ten LibDem-Tory marginals.

If the Tories gain less than 60 seats they will have lost the election anyway. If they gain more than 140 they will win whatever UKIP does (this allows for a little leeway on either side).

Therefore, all UKIP’s efforts should be concentrated on 80 Tory/Labour marginals and 10 LibDem-Tory marginals. Moreover, this should be announced as a strategy, communicated to members with a clear understanding that all resources should go to these seats.

Quixotic action such as standing against the Speaker should be downgraded and no party resources deployed there (it is, of course, useful colourful publicity but has no political meaning as it is a Parliamentary expenses story)

Anthony Scholefield

24th November 2009

I believe Tony was right on almost every comment. Though I do believe he is not as in touch with how befouled UKIP has become in its new EUkip guise.

In passing the fantasy that the Tories lost 27 or 28 seats due to UKIP at the last general election is nothing more than a political fantasy constructed by Dr. Richard North and I in the late early hours of election morning to provide two things:

a.) A reason for an utterly crushed UKIP to continue

b.) A lever to try to bring pressure on the Tories to try to move them to a more EUroSceptic position.

I explained to Nigel Farage what we were doing and he whole heartedly agreed as he had just been trashed in his constituency.

The whole hypothesis was later written up as a pamphlet by Richard and published by The Bruges Group.

It was a limited success but it is amusing even now to see our Machievellian scam reitterated as gospel!

Regards,
Greg L-W.

[Greg Lance-Watkins]

Hi,

in the light of Tony Schofield's piece posted earlier it is fortuitous that this light weight froth was published in The Meeeja on Sunday!

John Bercow
UK NEWS
UKIP DONOR'S CASH HELP TO AXE COMMONS SPEAKER JOHN BERCOW
Story Image

Millionaire donor Stuart Wheeler

Sunday February 21,2010
By Ted Jeory, Whitehall Editor

Comment Speech Bubble Have your say(17)

BRITAIN’S biggest political donor Stuart Wheeler announced last night he is ready to bankroll a campaign to unseat the Commons Speaker John Bercow from his safe seat in the Home Counties.

The 71-year-old millionaire said Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader who is standing against Mr Bercow in Buckingham, only had to call if he needed cash to help overturn a 13,000-vote majority.

Mr Wheeler, who switched his support from the Conservatives to Ukip over European policies, said Mr Bercow was “unsuitable” for the position of Speaker and hoped he would lose his seat.

Mr Bercow, a left-leaning Tory MP before taking up his new role, will not, as convention dictates, be opposed at the election by any of the main parties.

However, Mr Wheeler said voters would take a dim view of his record on expenses.

The spread betting tycoon is due next week to launch his new book, A Crisis of Trust, which vents his anger at how MPs “milked the system” with their expenses.

Commons Speaker John Bercow

He said Mr Bercow, who voluntarily repaid £6,500 to the taxman after it emerged he had “flipped” is second home from his constituency address to his London flat, was “personally mired in the crisis”.

Mr Wheeler said last night: “The Speaker is an absolutely influential position and he should be a person who is absolutely above reproach and he isn’t.

“It’s entirely unsuitable that he should be Speaker. I do hope he is defeated in the election.

“I think Nigel Farage is a very good campaigner and he is incredibly energetic and to the point and spending a lot of time in the constituency.

“He hasn’t actually asked me to help him with money, but I will if he does ask me. I see a lot of him and I am entirely on his side.

“If he rang and said he was desperately short of money, I wouldn’t say no.”

Mr Wheeler’s intervention comes just days after a local council by-election result in Buckingham showed Ukip making inroads in the constituency pushing the Lib Dems into third place.

Mr Bercow also faces opposition from his own former Tory grassroots campaigners.

John Stevens, a highly-respected former Tory MEP for the Thames Valley, is leading the Buckinghamshire Campaign for Democracy which wants an independent alternative to Ukip and the Speaker.

To view the original article CLICK HERE

Were this not so clearly fulfilling a number of my predictions it could be a matter of concern - it is not just a matter of a fool and his money are easily parted nor as simplistic as an old man in a hurry.

You will recall Stuart Wheeler is a professional gambler who accrued his wealth spread betting. He is also an Old Etonian and long term major donor to The Tories now isn't it kind of him to have used 'chump change' to buy EUkip which you will note is now titularly led by an Old Etonian Tory Grandee Peer sitting as an INDEPENDENT thus with the freedom of movement to take EUkip on board and we note EUkip's General Election manager is a failed Tory from the Major Government who went to South Africa where over several elections he managed to reduce Inkatha Freedom Party to an irrelevance!

Currently EUkip has been stitched up by Farage's dishonesty and incompetence to the tune of £3/4Million of debt via the Courts no wonder he has agreed to jump through the relevant hoops to appease Stuart Wheeler and Tory interests - you may remember in the summer EUkip offered, via Lord Pearson, to fold their tent if David Cameron would promise a referendum on the Constitutional Lisbon Treaty - already aware the deal was sealed and Cameron nor any other politician could deliver on such a promise.

All knew that on 01-December- 2009 Britain as a sovereign Nation would cease to exist.

Regards,
Greg L-W.

[angelcountry]

Oh yeah now you are talking.