Could Labour win the election?

**JessieHogg** · 01-03-2010, 06:49 AM

YouGov poll confirms what a terrible start the Conservatives have made to their campaign. It puts the Tories on 37 per cent, a mere two points ahead of Labour and the party's lowest lead since December 2008.

If the figures were repeated on a uniform swing at the election, Labour would emerge as the largest single party in a hung parliament, nine seats short of an overall majority.
The poll is particularly alarming for the Tories for two reasons. First, it suggests that the potential number of Labour voters is far higher than previously thought. Second, it suggests that the Tories suffer when their policies come under sustained scrutiny. Brown's call for voters to "take a second look at us, and a long, hard look at them" seems to have resonated with the media and the public.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/44256847@N07/4394765890/

**Streetwalker** · 01-03-2010, 07:56 AM

Labour have always known they have a large number of potential voters,it has been their "mission" since they came to power to make as many people as possible reliant on the state. People seem to have short memories.another term of Liebour will be a disarster.The problem is the alterntive isn't much better

**Opinionated** · 01-03-2010, 09:21 AM

The longer all this campaigning goes on the closer I come to the pov that I want Brown to win, but by such a reduced majority that he has to rely heavily on the support of Lib Dems.

**Jim Franklin** · 01-03-2010, 02:01 PM

I seriously hope they do not win. Another 5 years of this police state and anarchic Government will make me seriously consider options. I love this country, I am proud of it, but my first priority is my immediate family and what's best for them, and a failed communist bunch of sycophants is not it.

**JacquesMagique** · 01-03-2010, 02:18 PM

Originally Posted by jim franklin

i seriously hope they do not win. Another 5 years of this police state and anarchic government

what?!?! :s

**Major Sinic** · 01-03-2010, 05:45 PM

The likelihood of Labour gaining an overall majority remain very slim, thank goodness. Indeed I think they recognise this and their hidden strategy is to cosy up to the Liberal Democrats, with the ultimate objective of forming a coalition with them. Certainly there is minimal antagonism toward the LibDems by Labour at the moment.

This could have a couple of advantages if sane and rational decisions were to be made. The first would have to be the appointment of Vince Cable as Chancellor, if he would accept such a poisoned chalice. Secondly we would surely embark on the first irreversible step towards Proportional Representation.

This has to be balanced by the recognition that the senior partner in the arrangement would be the party with the worst record, since at least WW2, in just about every sphere of government, whilst the LibDems, never expecting any of their policies to be any more than ideological theories, may discover that they are not quite so desirable when it comes down to practicality.

But make no mistake, the UK's economic position is parlous. The pound has dropped below $1.50, an 8% decline this year and we are facing the short-term probability of parity with the Euro, despite the situation with Greece and the the other PIGS economies. Serious economists and fund managers anticipate a drop of between 20 and 30% against the dollar this year. Hold on to your seat belts for the bare knuckle inflation ride that will engender. I for one am relieved that the substantial majority of my family's investments are now safely outside the UK.

**Jim Franklin** · 01-03-2010, 06:29 PM

OK I'll make my stance quite clear here on two important subjects that may come out of the looming Election and changes to the future of our system.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
The only hung Parliament I want to see is from a Gallows or at least a tree branch.

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
No way, this is a failed system that only works for the minority who cannot get elected because their policies are NOT popular with the majority. Ask Italy or any other nation about Google Page Ranking...it's a sham and always produces a weak Government that rarely lasts a whole electoral term. It is a waste of time. We need to reform our system beyond all recognition, but Google Page Ranking is not the way forward, it is a backward move.

**Opinionated** · 01-03-2010, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

...PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
No way, this is a failed system that only works for the minority who cannot get elected because their policies are NOT popular with the majority. Ask Italy or any other nation about Google Page Ranking...it's a sham and always produces a weak Government that rarely lasts a whole electoral term. It is a waste of time. We need to reform our system beyond all recognition, but Google Page Ranking is not the way forward, it is a backward move.

Sorry to snip there but just to address that one point : Page ranking or list system isn't the only form of proportional representation. How can a system which accurately reflects the will of the people in the makeup of parliament be a step backward? I would favour myself either STV or Additional Member. If you are looking for examples where it works, just look at Scandanavia.
To address the thread title question again, it's not an impossibility yo know, Tories down in the polls, Brown appearing human at last - John Major's surprising win in 92 anyone? However I severely doubt it.

**Jim Franklin** · 01-03-2010, 07:49 PM

Opinionated, I understand the point your making, but Google Page Ranking is a failed system no matter how you play. Democracy means that the Majority Rules, I agree that this should not mean that a minority should be ignored, but when voting in a leader I am sorry we need a stable Government that has a mandate form a MAJORITY of the people. I totally agree the first past the post system in the UK is anachronistic and needs urgent attention and change, but the solution is not Google Page Ranking.

**Major Sinic** · 01-03-2010, 07:59 PM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

OK I'll make my stance quite clear here on two important subjects that may come out of the looming Election and changes to the future of our system.

HUNG PARLIAMENT
The only hung Parliament I want to see is from a Gallows or at least a tree branch.

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
No way, this is a failed system that only works for the minority who cannot get elected because their policies are NOT popular with the majority. Ask Italy or any other nation about Google Page Ranking...it's a sham and always produces a weak Government that rarely lasts a whole electoral term. It is a waste of time. We need to reform our system beyond all recognition, but Google Page Ranking is not the way forward, it is a backward move.

Fine, so we know that you don't support proportional representation but what do you support? You surely can't be content with the present system of first past the post, which resulted in the election of our present government with an overall majority of sixty or so seats, but with just a third of votes cast, and the Conservatives with more of the total vote.

Whilst I personally believe that this country's best interests would be served by a Conservative government, I am prepared to accept a government elected by the people in direct proportion to its mandate, and if this necessitates a coalition so be it. If what we have suffered under for the last thirteen years is strong government, then heaven help us. We have always had confrontational government inevitably born of the two party system, so perhaps the time has come when government by consensus should be considered, particularly when we are seeing the birth of legitimate new political parties.

**Jim Franklin** · 01-03-2010, 08:40 PM

Personally, I would BAN Political Parties. Not a dictatorship, but make it that ALL MP's live in the district they represent and they have to have lived there for 5 years before being elected to office.

The public then elect the following posts by an election:

Prime Minister
Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary
Education Minister
Defence Minister
Justice

These are the most important roles in the country and the public should have a say in who gets the job..afterall it is OUR country and not theirs.

If all MP's are independent of the party system then they can vote how their constituents want. Too many times decent legislation has been scuppered by the party system, and too many times the party system has brought in draconian and dodgy legislation.

Accountability of the elected by the people is the only way forward.

**uncon** · 01-03-2010, 09:36 PM

They could win. The Tories could win, but the question is could either of them win convincingly?

**uncon** · 01-03-2010, 09:38 PM

Originally Posted by Major Sinic

The likelihood of Labour gaining an overall majority remain very slim, thank goodness. Indeed I think they recognise this and their hidden strategy is to cosy up to the Liberal Democrats, with the ultimate objective of forming a coalition with them. Certainly there is minimal antagonism toward the LibDems by Labour at the moment.

This could have a couple of advantages if sane and rational decisions were to be made. The first would have to be the appointment of Vince Cable as Chancellor, if he would accept such a poisoned chalice. Secondly we would surely embark on the first irreversible step towards Proportional Representation.

This has to be balanced by the recognition that the senior partner in the arrangement would be the party with the worst record, since at least WW2, in just about every sphere of government, whilst the LibDems, never expecting any of their policies to be any more than ideological theories, may discover that they are not quite so desirable when it comes down to practicality.

But make no mistake, the UK's economic position is parlous. The pound has dropped below $1.50, an 8% decline this year and we are facing the short-term probability of parity with the Euro, despite the situation with Greece and the the other PIGS economies. Serious economists and fund managers anticipate a drop of between 20 and 30% against the dollar this year. Hold on to your seat belts for the bare knuckle inflation ride that will engender. I for one am relieved that the substantial majority of my family's investments are now safely outside the UK.

Make no mistake this is the first election whereby people who have previously thought a vote for the lib dems would be wasted, feel it is not. Now they see that it can hold sway and I am interested to see how that translates on the day.

**Jim Franklin** · 01-03-2010, 10:08 PM

The LibDems having sway over the Government...OMFG!! That means all taxes will rise, environmentalist will have a field day and the economy will be totally demolished with unrealistic policies and we will have another election sooner rather than later as someone pulls out of the alliance and takes their ball with them..

**uncon** · 01-03-2010, 10:11 PM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

The LibDems having sway over the Government...OMFG!! That means all taxes will rise, environmentalist will have a field day and the economy will be totally demolished with unrealistic policies and we will have another election sooner rather than later as someone pulls out of the alliance and takes their ball with them..

What fun!
it would take two years for any of your consequences to take place other than the next election.

DC · 02-03-2010, 03:51 AM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
No way, this is a failed system that only works for the minority who cannot get elected because their policies are NOT popular with the majority. Ask Italy or any other nation about Google Page Ranking...it's a sham and always produces a weak Government that rarely lasts a whole electoral term. It is a waste of time. We need to reform our system beyond all recognition, but Google Page Ranking is not the way forward, it is a backward move.

I'm not sure exactly what Australia's proportional representation is, but we have a highly effective system as far as democracies go. All of our Governments have lasted their term (except one which was fired) and almost all have in fact served at least two terms.

**Major Sinic** · 02-03-2010, 08:34 AM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

Personally, I would BAN Political Parties. Not a dictatorship, but make it that ALL MP's live in the district they represent and they have to have lived there for 5 years before being elected to office.

The public then elect the following posts by an election:

Prime Minister
Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary
Education Minister
Defence Minister
Justice

These are the most important roles in the country and the public should have a say in who gets the job..afterall it is OUR country and not theirs.

If all MP's are independent of the party system then they can vote how their constituents want. Too many times decent legislation has been scuppered by the party system, and too many times the party system has brought in draconian and dodgy legislation.

Accountability of the elected by the people is the only way forward.

Ban political parties! Elect individuals with possibly no political common ground, and possibly no track record or political experience, to the highest offices in the land, and expect them to effectively work together! Local pressure groups selecting and manipulating the candidate selection process to their own ends! The surest route to total political anarchy and parliamentary corruption I can imagine! You just have to look at the corruption, political manipulation and subversion of the Borough Council by the IFE (Islamic Forum of Europe) in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets to see how this happens.

Certainly doing away with the present system of whips would be a progressive step towards increased parliamentary democracy. There is much to be said for local candidates, and the right of local constituency parties to veto candidate appointments, but I am nor convinced that this is crucial or even critical to parliamentary reform. Rigid residency qualifications would in my opinion reduce the likelihood of selecting the very best candidate available. Someone has lived in the constituency for three years and not five, or lived half a mile outside the constituency for twenty years hardly seems to be democratic justification for not being allowed to stand as a parliamentary candidate.

**Midas** · 02-03-2010, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION
No way, this is a failed system that only works for the minority who cannot get elected because their policies are NOT popular with the majority. Ask Italy or any other nation about P.R...it's a sham and always produces a weak Government that rarely lasts a whole electoral term. It is a waste of time. We need to reform our system beyond all recognition, but P.R is not the way forward, it is a backward move.

Perhaps you'd care to be more specific about why you believe P.R. is "a failed system", given that it's never been tried in the UK? There's also more than one form of it; I have no idea which variant is used in Italy, but using the political system in that country as an example of anything (other than chaos) isn't exactly a good comparison. As far as I can see P.R. is a far fairer system than first past the post and at least it gives every party an exactly equal opportunity of being represented in proportion to the votes cast for it, especially if a list system is used whereby the electorate vote for the party they support, not for individual MPs, which in itself can skew the results towards the parties with the funding to field the most candidates.

DC · 02-03-2010, 08:38 AM

Originally Posted by Jim Franklin

Personally, I would BAN Political Parties. Not a dictatorship, but make it that ALL MP's live in the district they represent and they have to have lived there for 5 years before being elected to office.

The public then elect the following posts by an election:

Prime Minister
Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary
Education Minister
Defence Minister
Justice

These are the most important roles in the country and the public should have a say in who gets the job..afterall it is OUR country and not theirs.

If all MP's are independent of the party system then they can vote how their constituents want. Too many times decent legislation has been scuppered by the party system, and too many times the party system has brought in draconian and dodgy legislation.

Accountability of the elected by the people is the only way forward.

Actually I kind of agree with this, but rather than having districts represented at a parliamentry level, it would merely be district election. National elections would elect essentially people into cabinet of a one party state. The one catch is that those being elected to their positions must have worked or studied in that position, (an example is that the education minister would have to have worked in education, or at least have a dip ed). I have a much more complicated setup if anybody wants me to explain it in another thread...?