Tory lead cut to four in latest YouGov poll

[JessieHogg]

The latest daily YouGov survey for the Sun put the Tories down one point to 36 per cent, with Labour unchanged on 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one to 20 per cent. If repeated at a general election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would leave Labour 31 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.


But there was better news for the Tories in the latest Angus Reid survey for the website Political Betting, which shows the party on track to win a comfortable majority at the election. The poll had the Tories unchanged on 39 per cent, with Labour also unchanged on 26 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up three to 21 per cent.

Source : Tory lead cut to four in latest YouGov poll

[Major Sinic]

The latest daily YouGov survey for the Sun put the Tories down one point to 36 per cent, with Labour unchanged on 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one to 20 per cent. If repeated at a general election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would leave Labour 31 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.


But there was better news for the Tories in the latest Angus Reid survey for the website Political Betting, which shows the party on track to win a comfortable majority at the election. The poll had the Tories unchanged on 39 per cent, with Labour also unchanged on 26 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up three to 21 per cent.

Interesting in that the variance between different polls is such that neither can be relied upon. Equally it depends on the structure of the poll itself. The Tories are expected to have a greater positive swing in the marginals, as opposed to the national swing. This is normal for parties in opposition. Add to this the particular attention the Tories have paid to the marginals, and that would tend to reinforce this view. The only meaningful and binding opinion poll will take place in all probability on May 6th.

Each opinion poll is absolutely accurate as long as you build in a + or - 10% variance factor. In other words it is simply too close to call.