Scottish parliament election, 2011

[SaveTheUK]

I know it's nearly a whole year away but it's never to early to talk about the next election(well, I say the next election, assuming the UK government survives till then).

The SNP are defending a tiny majority of just 1 seat, they are defending 47 seats, 21 of which are constituency seats. After a shaky start the Nats minority administration was enjoying increasing popularity, they had never been higher in opinion polls during their first 2 years in office. They looked set to unseat almost every Scottish Labour MP at the 2010 general election after John Mason pinched Glasgow East, but they hit a brick wall in year 3. They had broken some promises and angered the Scottish public by releasing the Lockerbie bomber. They went nowhere near their target of 20 westminister seats, failing to gain a seat and losing 1 of it's 7 seats(John Mason losing Glasgow East in a landslide). The feeling is that although Alex Salmond will target an overall Holyrood majority, the SNP won't even hold on to power.

Scottish Labour seemed to be going downhill since 2007, 2 failed leaders and a dismal showing at the EU election, but the SNP's failings, the fact that the Tories a still deeply unpopular in Scotland and the general public feeling that the Lib Dems will never win anything saw Labour's vote hold firm in Scotland at the general election. They held on to all their Scottish seats and gained a seat each from the SNP and the Lib Dems. I expect them to build on their 63 seats and regain control in Scotland.

The tories are defending 17 seats and the Lib Dems have 16 seats. The greens have 2 and former SNP MSP Margo McDonald is the only independent.

Over the next year I'm going to look into all 73 constituencies and 8 regions and publish a report on this thread for each of them so I can hopefully make an accurate prediction of the final result. I'll try and get through one region(all the constituencies in the region and the regional list) in about 6 weeks so I can have this finished in time for the election.

rough timetable
May-early June: central Scotland
late June-July: Glasgow
August-early September: Lothians
late September- October: Mid Scotland and Fife
early November-December: North East Scotland
January-early February: South Scotland
late February- March: West of Scotland
April: Highlands and Islands

Looking forward to this long term project, happy reading

[SaveTheUK]

CENTRAL SCOTLAND REGION.

constituency 1 of 10- Airdrie and Shotts

current constituency MSP- Karen Whitefield, Scottish Labour party. The Scottish Parliament

Brief outline
Karen Whitefield has held the Airdrie and Shotts constituency ever since the Scottish parliament was opened in 1999. In each of the 3 elections she has won the constituency with the Scottish National Party second and the Scottish conservative and unionist party a distant 3rd. In the 1999 election Whitefield beat controversial SNP candidate Gil Paterson by 8985 votes, in 2003 Paterson was once again the Nats candidate but he could only cut Whitefield's majority by 8 votes, in the latest election 3 years ago Paterson was replaced by Sophia Coyle and Whitefield's majority was slashed to just under 1500 on an impressive 15.2% swing by the Nats. No doubt the SNP will view this as a target seat after the big swing in 2007, the Nats need just a 5.3% swing to take the seat.

prediction
The SNP cut into the Labour vote for the 3rd straight election, but Whitefield holds off the charge and Labour hold the seat on a 3 figure majority.

running total
Scottish Labour party - 1 seat

[Major Sinic]

It must be wonderful as a Scotsman, to have your own parliament and to be able to elect your own members of that parliament to make decisions regarding the internal affairs of your own country.

As an Englishman I am deprived of such democracy. The English electorate voted overwhelmingly for a Conservative government. Unfortunately the Scottish vote deprived us of our democratic wish, and we currently have no government at all. If the Liberal Democrats put their own political interests above those of the UK, and enter into a political alliance with every losing party in the UK (Labour, PC,BNP, Green) that political pygmy Alex Salmond will wield more political power over the UK government than the leader of the largest political party in the UK as a whole, and with a convincing overall majority in England. It would be an utter disgrace and a travesty of democracy.

English MPs are not permitted to vote on the internal affairs of Scotland, yet Scottish MPs can and do vote on Englands internal affairs. This is another non-democratic outrage.

If Scotland can have its own Parliament, Wales and Northern Ireland its own Assemblies then there it is a travesty of social justice that England, as the largest of the country's which make up the United Kingdom, and the one which massively subsidises the other three, does not.

Restore democracy! Dissolve the Union, stop foreign MPs voting on internal English matters, halt subsidies to Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland. If they need them let them go to Brussels, not Westminster.

[SaveTheUK]

I disagree, either close the devolved assemblies or give England a devolved assembly. No to independence

[Major Sinic]

I disagree, either close the devolved assemblies or give England a devolved assembly. No to independence

I can fully understand why you should disagree. The standard of living in Scotland would plummet, because the English handouts from Westminster would stop. Your students would have to start to pay tuition fees, which will inevitably increase just as English students have to at English universities. Your elderly citizens in care would have to start to pay for the pastoral aspects of this care, just as their English counterparts have to. You would no longer be able create so many public sector non-jobs.

The first public expenditure cut which any Westminster government should make are the subsidies to Scotland, Wales, and N.Ireland. Why should Scottish students have their tuition fees paid in part by English taxpayers when English students have to incur massive student debt? Why should the Scottish elderly be provided with free pastoral care paid for in part by the English taxpayers, when the English elderly are forced to sell their homes to pay for their own care? Why should Edinburgh University be permitted to operate a system of racial prejudice against English students, when the cost of the university is subsidised by the English taxpayer?

[ryoden]

I can fully understand why you should disagree. The standard of living in Scotland would plummet, because the English handouts from Westminster would stop. Your students would have to start to pay tuition fees, which will inevitably increase just as English students have to at English universities. Your elderly citizens in care would have to start to pay for the pastoral aspects of this care, just as their English counterparts have to. You would no longer be able create so many public sector non-jobs.

The first public expenditure cut which any Westminster government should make are the subsidies to Scotland, Wales, and N.Ireland. Why should Scottish students have their tuition fees paid in part by English taxpayers when English students have to incur massive student debt? Why should the Scottish elderly be provided with free pastoral care paid for in part by the English taxpayers, when the English elderly are forced to sell their homes to pay for their own care? Why should Edinburgh University be permitted to operate a system of racial prejudice against English students, when the cost of the university is subsidised by the English taxpayer?

I would have to agree.

[CONORWATT]

England does not subsidize Scotland period here is your proof.

UK Treasury Taxation Figures 1999 UK Whole Percent Scotland PercentDescription of Taxes £ Millions % £ Millions %----------------------------------------------------------------------Value Added Taxation £ 55,700,000 100 £ 4,957,300 8.9%Hydrocarbon Oils £ 22,500,000 100 £ 4,477,500 19.9%Tobacco £ 8,300,000 100 £ 672,300 8.1%Alcohol Inc Whisky £ 6,400,000 100 £ 2,515,200 39.3%Betting & Gaming £ 1,500,000 100 £ 129,000 8.6%Air Passenger Duty £ 900,000 100 £ 77,400 8.6%Insurance Premium Tax £ 1,400,000 100 £ 120,400 8.6%Landfill Tax £ 400,000 100 £ 34,400 8.6%Other Excise duties £ 2,100,000 100 £ 180,600 8.6%TOTAL Customs/Excise £ 99,200,000 100 £13,164,100 13.3%----------------------------------------------------------------------Income Taxes Net of Tax Credits £ 90,700,000 100 £ 6,711,800 7.4%Corporation Taxes Non-North Sea £ 30,100,000 100 £ 2,739,100 9.1%Corporation Taxes North Sea Scotland £ 3,400,000 100 £ 3,301,400 97.1%Petroleum Revenue Tax £ 800,000 100 £ 776,800 97.1%North Sea revenues £ 2,600,000 100 £ 2,524,600 97.1%Capital Gains tax £ 2,400,000 100 £ 199,200 8.3%Inheritance Taxes £ 2,000,000 100 £ 168,000 8.4%Stamp Duties £ 6,100,000 100 £ 512,400 8.4%TOTAL Inland Revenue £138,100,000 100 £16,933,300 12.3%----------------------------------------------------------------------Vehicle Excise Duties £ 4,900,000 100 £ 445,900 9.1%OilField Royalties £ 400,000 100 £ 388,400 97.1%Business Rates £ 15,700,000 100 £ 2,527,700 16.1%Social Security £ 56,200,000 100 £ 4,158,800 7.4%Council Taxes £ 12,800,000 100 £ 1,190,400 9.3%Other Taxes/Royalties £ 7,500,000 100 £ 645,000 8.6%Interest and Dividends £ 3,600,000 100 £ 309,600 8.6%Gross Operating Surplusand Crown Estate Rents £ 18,400,000 100 £ 1,582,400 8.6%TOTAL Other Taxation £119,500,000 100 £11,248,200 9.4%----------------------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTALS £356,800,000 £41,345,600 11.6% SCOTLAND RECEIVES FROM TREASURY £12,200,000 3.4%Treasury Estimate of Scottish Population is that of 8.6% of UK Total.

[CONORWATT]

Dear savetheuk
As I live in scotland I would to offer my help in this task.
Just ask me to do thing and I will try may best to get fair results.
If you want me to do surveys about voting then just ask as I am only too happy to
help; I know people in the a` ghaidhealtachd AKA highlands and islands,central and north and east scotland,glasgow and
everywhere in fife they would be able to help me.
However I feel that your views are kind of against the SNP and independence if this is the case you would have to make sure you are neutral to be able to see the whole picture if not then any results you get you might alter slightly to who you would like it to be and be biased and therefore untrue
I would love to wake up on 6th May 2011 and say I helped predicted that result and I was right.

[Major Sinic]

England does not subsidize Scotland period here is your proof.

UK Treasury Taxation Figures 1999 UK Whole Percent Scotland PercentDescription of Taxes £ Millions % £ Millions %----------------------------------------------------------------------Value Added Taxation £ 55,700,000 100 £ 4,957,300 8.9%Hydrocarbon Oils £ 22,500,000 100 £ 4,477,500 19.9%Tobacco £ 8,300,000 100 £ 672,300 8.1%Alcohol Inc Whisky £ 6,400,000 100 £ 2,515,200 39.3%Betting & Gaming £ 1,500,000 100 £ 129,000 8.6%Air Passenger Duty £ 900,000 100 £ 77,400 8.6%Insurance Premium Tax £ 1,400,000 100 £ 120,400 8.6%Landfill Tax £ 400,000 100 £ 34,400 8.6%Other Excise duties £ 2,100,000 100 £ 180,600 8.6%TOTAL Customs/Excise £ 99,200,000 100 £13,164,100 13.3%----------------------------------------------------------------------Income Taxes Net of Tax Credits £ 90,700,000 100 £ 6,711,800 7.4%Corporation Taxes Non-North Sea £ 30,100,000 100 £ 2,739,100 9.1%Corporation Taxes North Sea Scotland £ 3,400,000 100 £ 3,301,400 97.1%Petroleum Revenue Tax £ 800,000 100 £ 776,800 97.1%North Sea revenues £ 2,600,000 100 £ 2,524,600 97.1%Capital Gains tax £ 2,400,000 100 £ 199,200 8.3%Inheritance Taxes £ 2,000,000 100 £ 168,000 8.4%Stamp Duties £ 6,100,000 100 £ 512,400 8.4%TOTAL Inland Revenue £138,100,000 100 £16,933,300 12.3%----------------------------------------------------------------------Vehicle Excise Duties £ 4,900,000 100 £ 445,900 9.1%OilField Royalties £ 400,000 100 £ 388,400 97.1%Business Rates £ 15,700,000 100 £ 2,527,700 16.1%Social Security £ 56,200,000 100 £ 4,158,800 7.4%Council Taxes £ 12,800,000 100 £ 1,190,400 9.3%Other Taxes/Royalties £ 7,500,000 100 £ 645,000 8.6%Interest and Dividends £ 3,600,000 100 £ 309,600 8.6%Gross Operating Surplusand Crown Estate Rents £ 18,400,000 100 £ 1,582,400 8.6%TOTAL Other Taxation £119,500,000 100 £11,248,200 9.4%----------------------------------------------------------------------GRAND TOTALS £356,800,000 £41,345,600 11.6% SCOTLAND RECEIVES FROM TREASURY £12,200,000 3.4%Treasury Estimate of Scottish Population is that of 8.6% of UK Total.

There are lies, damn lies and Scottish statistics!! You make the erroneous assumption that North Sea Oil is a Scottish resource. It is not. It is a British resource. This fact alone blows your statistics straight out of the water. Let alone that your inaccurate statistics are eleven years out of date.http://www.politic.co.uk/images/icons/smiley-cool.png

Anyone who really wishes to see just how much the Scottish leach costs England should google 'The Barnett Formula'. This discredited formula was introduced 30 years ago as a temporary measure!! This parliament will hopefully see it dismantled.!!

[CONORWATT]

where are you getting these results: the back off you head probably !!!!
On what promises-or lack thereof does the labour party hold this seat.

Those are uk staticistics not scottish ones remember the scottish parliment was only reconviened in 1999 so these are scottish government figure and even if they were they would have been labours not the SNP's.

[CONORWATT]

Well that is desputable according to the gavin Mccrone report so they us take away 12billion pounds (Although the oil is scotlands)(you are absolutely pissing me off as a son of an ex-oil rig worker)
So please stop dissembling

[Major Sinic]

Well that is desputable according to the gavin Mccrone report so they us take away 12billion pounds (Although the oil is scotlands)(you are absolutely pissing me off as a son of an ex-oil rig worker)
So please stop dissembling

In what way am I dissembling? North Sea oil is an asset of the UK, and the tax revenues coming from it therefore belong to Britain. A modest proportion of it would no doubt go to Scotland following independence. I don't frankly care if you the son of the Arch Angel Gabriel, I will continue to post as I think fit.

[Midas]

Well that is desputable according to the gavin Mccrone report so they us take away 12billion pounds (Although the oil is scotlands)(you are absolutely pissing me off as a son of an ex-oil rig worker)
So please stop dissembling

Oil found in the North Sea to the north of the line extending from the mouth of the river Tweed and out to the westerly maritime boundary of Norway belongs to The United Kingdom as a mineral resource found in its exclusive economic zone. If you check with the UN you'll find that the EEZ agreements were made with the government of the UK, not with that of Scotland. As Major Sinic correctly points out, some of the revenues from that oil might go to Scotland, but under law, both that of the UK and of the various UN charters, it belongs to the UK and is thus not Scottish oil.

You can complain all you like, but that doesn't change the facts.

[LibLeft]

Oil found in the North Sea to the north of the line extending from the mouth of the river Tweed and out to the westerly maritime boundary of Norway belongs to The United Kingdom as a mineral resource found in its exclusive economic zone. If you check with the UN you'll find that the EEZ agreements were made with the government of the UK, not with that of Scotland. As Major Sinic correctly points out, some of the revenues from that oil might go to Scotland, but under law, both that of the UK and of the various UN charters, it belongs to the UK and is thus not Scottish oil.

You can complain all you like, but that doesn't change the facts.

Should the two countries separate in future, there would be no such thing as the UK or UK oil. If the rules of the UN Law of the Sea are applied from the current border, Scotland receives the lion's share of the oil.

In the mean time, Scotland's advantage is the Barnett formula along with a fear in the UK government of alienating the Scots and moving the percentage against independence from 67% to less than 50%.

CameronClegg will be kind to Scotland!

[CONORWATT]

Should the two countries separate in future, there would be no such thing as the UK or UK oil. If the rules of the UN Law of the Sea are applied from the current border, Scotland receives the lion's share of the oil.

In the mean time, Scotland's advantage is the Barnett formula along with a fear in the UK government of alienating the Scots and moving the percentage against independence from 67% to less than 50%.

CameronClegg will be kind to Scotland!

True, however cuts are due to come next year just before the holyrood elections and as much a they try to deliver things as nicely as possible the SNP will rant and rave about every last penny of cuts to come.
I think you ment for independence on your last comment however I have never seen this poll so make me a link please if you want me to believe you.
Guys,Even with the "benefits" of the union most scots in fife although labour voters in 2007 are tired with it. The hatred for the english now is more extreme that every before.I went round my street surveying and most people just want us to go our separate ways and stop bickering. I asked 47 people, 35 for independence and 12 for stayingin the union admittedly all 12 were from the babyboomer 1940's when british pride was running high now no one is really proud for being british yet "SCOTTISH,ENGLISH,WELSH and IRISH" they are nationlities that people prefer to associate themseves with.

I Support all nationalism scottish,welsh,english,irish
Jim murphy scottish labour says we are better together but, are we really?

If some nationalities don't get on why force them into a union.

[CONORWATT]

Assuming the uk is dissolved AS WE ARE ASSUMING THERE IS NO UK GOVERNMENT THEREFORE NO UK WATER TERRITORY THEREFORE.
If the uk doesn't exist then then oil is not the uks as what would be if there is independent countries.
21 oil fields in scottish water territory do you seriously think england has the right to north sea oil when from main land england there are 7,000 miles away.

I am sorry for swearing earlier but can you see what I mean,what we are ment to be discussing.

The question was "how would an independent scotland grow its economy" if scotland is independent there is no United kingdom.