2015 and 2020 Elections- Proportionality of Votes

[LibLeft]

If the current coalition has its way, Election 2015 will be on the Alternative Vote system- second preferences from the losing parties being reallocated to the other parties. This probably guarantees them a considerable number of seats even undere the present number of constituencies.

See projection here:
Electoral reform: Alternative vote system would have had minimal impact on outcome of general election | Politics | guardian.co.uk

If the number of seats is also reduced and the electoral commission is ordered to make seats more marginal (avoid all-city and all-country seats where possible) then they are likely to do slightly better than that.

Whatever happens, AV is likely in most circumstances to give the LibDems a blocking vote- only in the most extreme landslide years will an absolute majority be available.

If this happens the LibDems may well ally with the Labour Party who would prefer an Single Transferable vote system, possibly for the election in 2020.

We may get there yet!

[joethfc]

we will just have to see how many morons vote no because the sun and the mail tell them to - thats a worry for me

[newspresenter]

Projections are pure guess work, there is no telling who would vote where. Could you safely say that Libers would vote Labour second, Greens, or socialist, might even vote Tory now. A good number of BNP's votes have come from Labour, will Labour voters vote BNP, Libers, Green or socialist second? Its fairly safe to say that Tory and UKIPers will vote eachother, but its almost impossible to project second votes.

The best we can hope for, is that after about another 5 elections, enough smaller party MP's will be part of Parliament, enough to make a real dent in reform and we get proper Google Page Ranking. For now, the system is a dead duck.